Thursday, December 05, 2002

Someone offered the "hunch" that Bush is just bluffing and that their won't be a war with Iraq anytime soon.

Here are my hunches:

1) The Bush administration will find some excuse to attack Iraq. Perhaps they will say that all the "i"s are not dotted in the report due this weekend. Or, maybe that the weapons inspectors are incompetent. Or, maybe they will invent a lie like the incubator baby story from the first Gulf war. (See recent articles in British newspapers here, and here)

2) The attack will take place between Dec. 16 and the end of January – this is the ideal weather window for battle in the dessert (see: this source).

3) This war has nothing to do with “weapons of mass destruction” which is why we are not attacking N. Korea. It has to do with the fact that Iraq has the world’s second largest oil reserves and the Bush administration considers it strategic for their world domination objectives. (See London Review of Books article by Anatol Lieven, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment )

4) The war will cost $100 billion of our tax dollars and kill tens of thousands of innocent lives. In my view this is too high a cost for cheap oil and the administration’s ideas of grandeur.

5) The only thing that can stop the war is significant public opposition in the US and Great Britain.

6) The war will likely increase terrorist attacks against the US and Israel

Much of this anaylsis comes from

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